Trenton, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

359
FXUS61 KPHI 271802
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
202 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front gradually lifts tonight and Saturday, followed by
a weak cold front stalling nearby on Sunday. The front then
shifts back northward as a warm front Monday followed by a cold
front later Tuesday. High pressure builds closer later
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Satellite imagery and surface obs indicate the back door cold
front has stalled in eastern Virginia. Despite the front being
well south, spotty showers have developed across the region
thanks to elevated instability, warm/moist advection aloft and
weak upper-level impulses. Expect this to more or less continue
thru tonight.

The front is expected to start pushing back northward as a warm
front ahead of another cold front tonight, possibly causing
some fog to develop particularly across southern/coastal areas
as it does so later tonight into early Saturday. Temperatures
won`t change much, perhaps even warming late tonight as the
front approaches from the south.

The warm front should then push north of the area toward
midday Saturday, resulting in clouds breaking for some sun with
a very warm and humid day across the region. With temps likely
to approach 90 and dew points likely in the 70s, heat indices
will likely reach our early-season heat advisory thresholds
across the metro, so have issued a metro-only heat advisory for
heat indices of 96-99. Heat indices likely pass 100 across parts
of the Delmarva, but the all-year criteria there is 105, so no
advisories necessary.

Some spotty sea-breeze showers and storms may develop across NJ
and DE during the midday and afternoon Saturday, but the main
focus is the next cold front which approaches from the
northwest late in the day. With decent CAPE and shear but
nothing too crazy, for now we remain in a marginal outlook for
severe weather, with damaging winds being the main threat.
Depending on guidance trends, wouldn`t be surprised if this ends
up as a slight with a severe thunderstorm watch at some point
later tomorrow, but confidence isn`t there yet. Gotta see how
destabilized we get after we break out of this marine air mass
first.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
After the cold front passes the area Sat evening, the end of the
weekend will be rather tranquil. The rains will diminish and
skies will become partly cloudy. It`ll remain mild however with
lows in the upper 60s/low 70s S/E and low/mid 60s for NW
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper air pattern for next week will be significantly
different than the previous week. Instead of a strong upper high
parked overhead pumping heat and humidity over us, we`ll see a
series of broad troughs cross the area bringing more clouds and
showers/tstms at times. The storm track will be nearby, so
temperatures will be not feature extremes like last week, but
still end up a little above normal as we approach the
climatological warmest part of the year.

The hottest day of the long term will be Monday as we are still
under the upper ridge a bit and the temps from the weekend
carry into Monday with upper 80s/low 90s most areas and some
low/mid 80s for the far N/W areas and near the shore. After
that, highs will mostly be in the 80s for the remainder of the
week. Mid/upper 80s S/E and low 80s N/W. Higher humidity for
Tuesday with dew points in the 70s but drier after that with dew
points mostly in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday will feature more in the way of
showers/tstms compared to the later half of the long term.
Chance pops are in the fcst for Monday (mostly afternoon) with
low likely pops for Tuesday.

Later next week, high pressure returns to the region and dry
weather is expected. It`ll remain very warm with slightly above
normal temps. highs will be mostly 85 to 90 wile lows will be
around 70. Chances for rain look low, but confidence in precip
forecasts 5 or 6 days out in summer is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...Spotty showers could reduce vsby in spots below
VFR, with some mist along the southern NJ coast (ACY).
Otherwise, mostly MVFR due to cigs. Winds mostly easterly 5-10
kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts. High confidence.

Tonight...A continuation of low CIGS with scattered showers. IFR
likely with LIFR possible, perhaps intervals of VLIFR. Some fog
could also develop, most likely at ACY. Moderate confid.

Saturday... Lower CIGS and perhaps vsby early Sat then VFR
expected to return toward midday. Scattered showers/tstms with
lower CIGS/VSBYs in the afternoon, mainly late. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Sat night... Scattered showers/tstms with lower CIGS/VSBYs
during the evening.

Sunday... VFR expected.

Mon/Tue... Mostly VFR. Scattered showers/tstms with lower
CIGS/VSBYs late afternoon into the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas across Delaware Bay and the southern ocean zones
have diminished, but remain up across the northern zones. We`ll
continue the SCA flag accordingly til midnight, by which point
they likely diminish, but remain easterly 10-15 kts with seas
3-4 ft. Scattered showers and possibly an isolated t-storm thru
tonight, with some patchy marine fog also possible.

Sub-SCA expected on Saturday with winds turning southerly around
10 kts with seas 3-4 ft. Patchy marine fog possible early, spotty
thunderstorms possible mainly later.

Outlook...

Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels Sunday into next
week. Fair weather Sunday. More scattered showers/tstms Mon/Tue.

Rip Currents...

For today, onshore flow with east winds around 15 to 20 mph
will continue with seas off the coast building to around 3 to 4
feet. For this reason, there is a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore
and the Delaware Beaches.

For Saturday, the flow t urns southerly so there will be less
of an onshore component however the seas will continue to be
around 3 to 4 feet. For this reason we`ll continue with a
MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for
the NJ Shore with a LOW risk for the Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
One round of widespread minor tidal flooding occurred last night
into early this morning with the onshore flow and recent New
Moon. These factors begin to decrease today, so no further
widespread minor tidal flooding is expected. However, spotty
minor tidal flooding will be possible with the high tide tonight
into early Saturday along much of the coast of New Jersey and
Delaware, including the Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware
River.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...OHara/RCM
MARINE...AKL/OHara/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI